Thursday, June 12, 2014

Enhanced Qualitative Risk Assessment for Micro-finance Lending

Many lenders base their small and mid-size enterprise (SME) lending decisions on quantitative credit scoring methods and models. Quantitative credit scoring is an efficient means to evaluate borrower’s creditworthiness and to effectively price credit products. It provides accurate predictive metrics of a borrower’s future ability to meet debt obligations based on past experience. 

In the micro-finance segment determining a credit score is difficult if not impossible. Lack of financial data due to limited business history, the inability to capture and articulate financial data or its non existence hinder transparency and make credit decisioning by lenders difficult. 

In the absence of credit scoring metrics, lenders need to rely on qualitative methods to weigh credit risk and determine the creditworthiness of a micro-finance borrower. 

Even with larger SME’s product markets and a company’s financial health can change direction seemingly overnight. Rapid changes in technology, capital market shifts and geopolitical and demographic risk factors are heightened and accelerated in today’s global economy. SME are impacted by these risk factors and commercial lenders should consider how well an SME is prepared to meet these mounting challenges. That is why bankers need to consider qualitative business risk factors in the credit decisioning process. 

An effective qualitative risk assessment program targets six critical aspects of the micro business enterprise. Those six business aspects are: 
  • Company’s Product and Market Dynamics 
  • A Risk Assessment of Business Functions 
  • Review of Critical Success Factors 
  • Optimized Business Plan 
  • Capital Allocation 
  • Realistic Projections 
Managers and owners of micro-finance enterprises must demonstrate to their banker how they have assessed these risks in their franchise. They must also articulate to lenders how their governance structure manages these risks and how their business plan will leverage capital to transform these risks into opportunities for growth and profitability.

Commercial lenders can feel safe in the assurance that owners and managers who can answer to these questions are the type of client the bank wants as customers. 


Risk: #micro-finance #sme #smerisk #smeiot #metasme #creditrisk #creditscoring

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

2014 Regulatory Changes Impact SMEs

Accounting Today lists nine key regulatory changes identified by Paychex that could have a significant impact on Small Mid-Sized Enterprises (SME). 

 Many SME’s hope to fly under the radar when it comes to regulatory compliance issues. With the drive toward greater transparency and governance practices required by regulators and corporate stakeholders, SMEs must adopt better engagement strategies to incorporate regulatory mandates into the enterprise. 

Regulatory compliance initiatives need not be a check the box exercise. SME’s dedicated to a best practices regimen incorporate regulatory compliance initiatives as an opportunity to implement improvements in operational and governance practices. SME’s committed to a culture of continuous improvement use regulatory mandates to integrate requirements into sound practices as central pillars of effective governance, risk, compliance (GRC) program.

Sound practices are a set of standards and controls that mitigate numerous risk factors in the corporate enterprise. Sound practices address corporate governance, operational and market risk factors, regulatory compliance, corporate citizenship, and stakeholder communications within a set of defined expense ratios. Market leading SME’s effectively ascertain emerging regulatory initiatives to optimize operations to enhance competitive position. 

The Paychex list notes the Affordable Healthcare Act, Defence of Marriage Act, Minimum Wage legislation, Immigration and E-Verify, IRS focus on Revenue Recognition, Retirement Programs, Employment Regulations, Privacy Rights and Data Security, Mobile Technology and Bank regulations. These emerging regulatory concerns need to be thoroughly assessed to determine how they can be incorporated into the company’s business model to create a new and improved value proposition for clients, employees and stakeholders.

A STEEPLE analysis is a useful tool to determine how these emerging issues will impact the SME business model. STEEPLE is an acronym for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal and Emerging Risk factors confronting the business. A STEEPLE analysis is fully incorporated into Sum2’s S3 app.

Sound practices require that regulatory compliance programs be embraced as a brand building exercise. Corporations that approach compliance by implementing best practice solutions will mitigate reputational and regulatory risk, attract high end clientele, and command premium product margins.

Sum2 believe this to be the case as well. Our clients engage risk as a daily cost of doing business. We design risk management products for small business managers that empower them to lower the odds and consequences of damaging risk events while positioning themselves to be the beneficiaries of opportunities changing market conditions produce. 

Get risk aware and protect your business with the S3 an SME Seismograph, a risk detector and an early warning and opportunity discovery app on Google Play. 



Risk: regulatory, tax, emerging risk, GRC, S3, STEEPLE, AHCA, Defence of Marriage Act, Card Check, Immigration and E-Verify, Minimum Wage, Accounting Today, IRS, Paychex, STEEPLE

Friday, April 25, 2014

S&P Downgrades Russian Sovereigns

Standard & Poor’s cut the Russian Federation sovereign debt credit rating citing the capital flight and risk to investment in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. S&P lowered Russia’s sovereign debt rating from BBB to BBB- placing it one notch above junk status.

Russia’s economy has slowed in step with the rest of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China). As the global economy entered recession in 2008, the BRICs were one of the few remaining bright spots still generating economic growth. For a variety of reasons tied to specific national and global macro conditions all BRICs economic growth has slowed considerably.

Russia’s fortune was closely tied to energy exports. The devaluation of the US dollar and acute political risk heightened by wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria; and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of events in Libya, Egypt and Iran had supported a rich valuation of oil prices.


New sources of fossil fuels coming online in North America, Libya, Iraq and Iran has undermined oil prices. Political instability in Venezuela and the fracturing of Russia’s paternalistic relationship with Ukraine and the potential disintermediation of Russian oil exports to its largest market in the EC adds a new uncertainty to global energy markets. It may also serve to support the rich valuation for oil even as supply expands.

In its commentary, S&P notes the rising debt burdens of Russian Federations Local and Regional Governments, slowing domestic growth, over dependency on energy exports and the developing conflict with Ukraine as reasons for the downgrade.

Turning business cycles create powerful macroeconomic risk factors that challenge SMEs. Rapidly changing market dynamics surface grave threats to SMEs. The Ukrainian Crisis is a risk event that impacts the cost of capital for the global SME community, spikes increase in commodity prices and disrupts global supply chains and market access. Acute macro risk drivers force market players to compete for capital in realigning markets. How will this global risk event impact your business? SME's must continually assess market events to seize emerging market opportunities.
Get Risk Aware
Get risk aware with MERA, a Macroeconomic Risk and Event Assessment app available on Google Play. MERA's Mobile Office capabilities provides business managers a world class risk management tool to assess emerging risk factors to adapt and capitalize on the opportunities shifting markets present.

risk: Russian Federation, EU, Ukraine, commodities, oil, Standard & Poor's, sovereign debt, credit risk, sme lending, market dynamics, macroeconomic risk

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Sustainable Economics

We have put our good mother through a lot over the past few million years. Ever since we walked out of the great rift the biospheres dominant species has really left a mark. I know that mark is but a tiny spec on the archaeological record of the earth which spans a few billion years but our impact is unmistakable.

I guess it started with the invention of hand tools, fire, wheels, shelter construction, water cultivation and agriculture. You can’t forget hunting in packs, weaponry, domestication of animals, speech, art and writing. A consciousness of a portfolio of skills, specialization, division of labor and the ability to discern exchange value within the community birthed a notion of governance. Our social nature was crowned with our ability to transmit craft and knowledge to successive generations, assuring continuity and cohesion with a common history and a well articulated cosmology. Put it all together and I think you got your basic modern Homo sapien.

Oh yeah, we also developed a psychology, an ego, that incorporates the primacy of ourselves and our selfish needs. It rationalizes and guides our interactions with nature, transforming the intention of our labor into a transaction that alters the conditions of the environment. It also serves as indisputable empirical evidence of the master species, elevated above all others as time marks the progress and dominion of the human race.

Our dominion has been codified into our sacred literature. Our creation stories and cosmic mission statements expressly state to exercise our dominion over nature, to propagate the species and to be fruitful and multiply. The screaming unencumbered id, left to its own devises, unchecked in the grand supermarket. We human’s have succeeded beyond our wildest expectations and the species continues to be fruitful and multiplying. 

We sojourn on, notching the ladder of history with marks of our progression through the ages. Along the way we Cro-Magnons expropriated the Neanderthals and moved into their Mediterranean digs complete with fire pits, burial chambers and the best take on modern art until Picasso came along.

I guess that's the point. Our survival comes at the expense of other creatures and things. I’m no Malthusian, but Tom Friedman’s flat world is getting crowded.    And as we celebrate the 44th Earth Day a midst the greatest die off of species since mankind coronated himself as master and commander of all things earth; it may be time to consider how our dominion is hampering the well being of the lesser flora and fauna kingdoms and what we can do to begin the practice of a more sustainable economics.

When I look at Las Vegas, I behold a garish mecca of capitalism on steroids.  I’m overwhelmed by the banality of the the things we so highly esteem. A community venerated and propped up on the foundation of vice, hedonism and the radical pursuit of money. Unbridled development of a crystal neon city constructed in the middle of a desert, recklessly consumes water and energy resources and misdirects human capital to maintain the facade of an unsustainable economy. 

Phoenix poses the same paradox. Darling child of the credit boom, Phoenix is a city consuming itself. The rising threat of climate change, blistering heat, dwindling water supplies and raging haboobs would give any urban planner reason to pause. A bustling city of many millions of striving citizens consuming energy, water and human capital built on the unsustainable foundation of excessive consumption and an unrealistic valuation of the capital required to maintain it. 

The explosion of fracking natural gas deposits in the Marcellus Shale formation is another example of sacrificing long term sustainability for the immediacy of shareholder returns. The Marcellus Deposit has proven reserves that only last a decade. As evidenced by the hyper development occurring in North Dakota,  economies tied to resource extraction are prone to experience classic boom bust cycles. During boom times all is well. But the good times don’t last all that long and communities are left in the wake of the bust cycle to deal with the aftermath. 

The Keystone XL Pipeline and the rapid expansion of the LNG extraction industries are being touted as the foundation of American energy independence. But this energy resource extracts a high cost on the land and its natural bounty. It poses significant risk to water aquifers, air quality, wildlife and the storage of waste-water byproducts will present long term remediation challenges to communities for many decades after the last well is capped.

Our new found fortune of LNG comes with a significant opportunity cost to develop alternative energy sources as it continues to tether our economic dependence on a dwindling supply of fossil fuels. Perpetuating this dependence also requires us to expend huge sums of money on the military. The political arrhythmia in the Ukraine and the keen interest of the United States has much to do with the changing political economy of fossil fuels and the protection and accession of markets.

Sustainability requires a new approach to the emerging realities of the global political economy. Recognition that competing interests bring important capital to the table, and that all must be recognized and fully valued in the new algorithms of sustainability is the keystone and pipeline of sustainability. The practice of unfettered development is unsustainable. Regulation, arbitration and revitalization cannot be sacrificed at the altar of laissez-faire politics that only serves to widen the wealth gap at tremendous social cost. The politicization of economic policy cannot continue to be beholden to rampant monetization. Sustainability is the creation of long term value for a diverse community of stakeholders. It needs to become our guiding mantra as the global population approaches 8 billion souls. 

Happy Earth Day.



Music Selection:


Risk: fracking, political, water, air, war, opportunity cost, renewal clean energy, climate change

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Conflict Minerals and Supply Chain Risk


Conflict Minerals Reporting Requirement Struck Down

Received a timely Good Friday Alert from Nixon Peabody about a recent district court ruling on regulations concerning Conflict Minerals. Conflict minerals are mined in areas where conditions of armed conflict exist. The minerals, extracted with forced labor under conditions employing human rights abuse, is common in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rebel groups use the proceeds from the sale of conflict minerals to finance armies to enrich leaders and gain political power.

A provision in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act required companies to publish notice that minerals acquired for use in production must be certified as being sourced from a conflict free zone. The National Association of Manufacturers brought suit against the Securities and Exchange Commission that the Conflict Mineral Disclosure provisions in the Dodd-Frank law violates the First Amendment right of free speech of corporations. The DC District Court agreed and overturned the reporting provision. 

Nixon Peabody’s note makes clear that other provisions of the law still stand. Though the ruling provides relief from the reporting requirement, firms remain obligated to audit their supply chain to determine the source of conflict minerals and what economic and political interests are engaged in the sale. 

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) publishes a list of people and corporations, Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) that have been identified as affiliates of terrorist organizations, known to engage in money laundering activities. Proceeds derived from the sale of Conflict Minerals like Blood Diamonds are sources of terrorist financing and financial crime. Proceeds from the sale of Conflict Minerals underwrite black market activities relating to counterfeiting, drugs, restricted chemicals, uranium, guns and slave trading. Global Financial Intelligence Units (FIU) like Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and FInCEN oversee and enforce regulations concerning money laundering to prohibit proceeds of illicit transactions from entering the regulated economy. 

Manufacturers and commodity merchants engaging in transactions involving Conflict Minerals from the Central African Republic and its surrounding countries must consult the OFAC’s SDN List, conduct PEP Checks (Politically Exposed People) and certify that source of materials, countries and banking institutions comply with the provisions concerning money laundering and reporting compliance with the Dodd-Frank law. 

Though the law only lists four minerals its applications span a wide range of industry groups. The following is a list of Conflict Minerals and its applications. Source is Wikipedia. 

Columbite-tantalite (or coltan, the colloquial African term) is the metal ore from which the element tantalum is extracted. Tantalum is used primarily for the production of capacitors, particularly for applications requiring high performance, a small compact format and high reliability, ranging widely from hearing aids and pacemakers, to airbags, GPS, ignition systems and anti-lock braking systems in automobiles, through to laptop computers, mobile phones, video game consoles, video cameras and digital cameras. In its carbide form, tantalum possesses significant hardness and wear resistance properties. As a result, it is used in jet engine/turbine blades, drill bits, end mills and other tools. 

Cassiterite is the chief ore needed to produce tin, essential for the production of tin cans and solder on the circuit boards of electronic equipment. Tin is also commonly a component of biocides, fungicides and as tetrabutyl tin/tetraoctyl tin, an intermediate in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and high performance paint manufacturing. 

Wolframite is an important source of the element tungsten. Tungsten is a very dense metal and is frequently used for this property, such as in fishing weights, dart tips and golf club heads. Like tantalum carbide, tungsten carbide possesses hardness and wear resistance properties and is frequently used in applications like metalworking tools, drill bits and milling. Smaller amounts are used to substitute lead in "green ammunition". Minimal amounts are used in electronic devices, including the vibration mechanism of cell phones. 

Gold is used in jewelry, electronics, and dental products. It is also present in some chemical compounds used in certain semiconductor manufacturing processes. 

SME's with supply chain exposures need to audit its supply chain to assure compliance with the in force provisions of Dodd Frank and Treasury Department anti-money laundering provisions. 

Sum2’s Credit|Redi offers managers tools to gain better insights into supply chain risk. 

Sum2's also offers an AML compliance tool to screen OFAC and SDN lists. 



Risk, Dodd-Frank, Conflict Minerals, Nixon Peabody, Central African Republic, OFAC, SDN, FATF, supply chain, AML, money laundering, AML BSA Reporting, Credit|Redi,


Graphic: Source Intelligence

Friday, April 18, 2014

SME Lending: Get Redi to Get Funded

The tough conditions in the credit markets require small businesses to communicate and demonstrate their credit worthiness to satisfy exacting credit risk standards of lenders. Credit channels are open and loans are being made but strict federal regulations and heightened risk aversion by lenders places additional burdens on borrowers to demonstrate they are a good credit risk.

“You have to be prepared,” said Robert Seiwert, a senior vice president with the American Bankers Association. “If you have a viable business model and the banker feels that this business model is going to work in this new economy, you have a very good chance of getting financing. But you have to be ready to show that it will work.”

"Small and medium-sized businesses are the lifeblood of the U.S. economy.  Their ability to prosper and grow is key to job creation to help our nation recover from the economic slowdown. But with the number of bad loans mushrooming in recent years because of the economic downturn, federal regulators have put in more stringent guidelines for qualifying for financing.", stated Ken Lewis former CEO of Bank of America.

Communication with Lenders is Key
Maintaining an open line of communication with your credit providers is key.  During times of prosperity the lines of communication are open; but during times when businesses face adversity the phone stops ringing and lenders start to get nervous.  When business conditions get difficult businesses need to communicate with greater frequency and openness with their lenders.  Bankers don't like surprises.

Reason to Communicate: Risk Assessment
The entrepreneurial nature of small business owners make them natural risk takers.  They have an unshakable belief in the fail safe nature of their ideas and have strong ego identification with their business.  This often makes them blind to the risks lingering within the business enterprise.  Their innate optimism may also cloud an ability to objectively analyze business risks and prevent them from seizing opportunities as a result of poor assessment capabilities.

Conducting a disciplined business assessment will uncover the risks and opportunities present in the enterprise and in the markets that the business serves.  This risk assessment is a great opportunity to communicate to lenders and credit providers that business management are capable risk managers and are a worthy credit risk.  Lenders will be impressed by the transparency of your risk governance practice and will be more disposed to provide financing for projects and opportunities that will propel future growth.

Banks are looking for businesses that are prepared with their financial and business plans. Business owners must present a clear purpose for the loan tied to clearly defined business objectives.   The risk assessment exercise is a vital tool that assists in the construction of a business plan that builds  lender's confidence in your business.  The assessment will reveal the largest risk factors confronting your business and outline clearly defined opportunities that promises optimal returns on loan capital.

Its music to a bankers ears that clients are managing risk well and have identified the most promising opportunities  for business investments.  It is usually a recipe for success and that will allow you and your banker to develop a trusted business relationship based on honesty and transparency.

Get Credit|Redi
Sum2 offers a portfolio of risk assessment applications and consultative services to businesses, governments and non-profit organizations. Our leading product Credit Redi offers SMEs tools to manage financial health and improve corporate credit rating to manage enterprise risk and attract capital to fund initiatives to achieve business goals. Credit Redi helps SMEs improve credit standing to demonstrate creditworthiness to bankers and investors. On Google Play: Get Credit|Redi


Risk: SME, commercial lending, alternative credit channels, credit risk, community banking, small business lending, business plan, capital raise, risk assessment

Monday, April 14, 2014

SMEs Dance to the Basel III Shuffle

cap structure sme eu.PNG
I often wonder, what if Basel II capital accords had been in place prior to the Great Recession? 

Could the devastating crisis fueled by the serial pops of credit bubbles rumbling through the dismal landscape of G20 principalities been avoided with better capital adequacy safeguards? 

Could the precious Post Cold War dividend been preserved; had the fiduciaries of global solvency not toppled the dominoes of economic prosperity and political stability through extreme selfishness and irrational behavior?

Some economists assert that had the guidelines of Basel II been in place it would not have mattered. That may certainly be true, but one is still left to wonder if Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI) had followed better governance frameworks the fissures emanating from the epicenter of the global economic meltdown would not have been as deep or as widespread.

The lessons learned from the crisis are being codified in the new governance frameworks of Basel III. Whereas previous Basel Accords focused on capital adequacy and loss reserves aligned to risk weighted assets and counterparty exposures, Basel III looks to strengthen capital adequacy by addressing liquidity and leverage risk in the banks capital structure. Basel III recognizes the primacy of mitigating the systemic risk concentrated in the capital structure of a SIFI and lesser designees, and the contagion threat it poses on its counterparties and the greater economy. 

To ally solvency concerns, Basel III installs a leverage ratio and bolsters its Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) which will require all banking institutions to increase its regulatory capital reserves of High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA). An increase in HQLA reserves will raise the cost of capital for all financial institutions requiring it to raise its spreads on credit products. 

SMEs will be particularly affected by Basel III initiatives. SME’s are highly dependant on bank capital and credit products and remain highly sensitive to the cyclicality of macroeconomic factors. D&B’s Small Business Health Index reports that SME business failures in the US were in excess of 140,000 per month in 2013. The OECD reported that during 2012 over 800,000 EC SME’s closed shop in 2012. 

Eurofact reported that 60% of all non-financial value add to the EC economy is attributable to SMEs. Though SMEs are generally recognized as principal economic drivers in both the developed and lesser developed economies; during the economic crisis SME’s were rationed out of the credit markets. Large capital infusions and accommodative monetary policy by the central bank authorities principally sought to bolster bank capital and inject liquidity into the faltering global banking system. 

As such much of the low cost capital provided to banks did not trickle down to SMEs. Better returns were realized by deploying capital to investment partnerships, energy resource development, the acquisition of strategic commercial enterprises and underwriting speculative trading in the global security markets. 

Little of the low cost capital found its way onto Main Street; driving the bifurcating wedge between the real and speculative economy. As a more conservative political landscape emerges from the wreckage of the economic calamity created by “elitist” financial institutions and “remote” Brussels based government bureaucrats, the cause of the SME is resonating in the rising voice of a middle class spoken with a distinct nationalist accent. 

Politicians, legislators and advocacy groups are fully invested in the cause of the SME. Stakeholders are advocating more government involvement to underwrite and guarantee sponsored loans. In an era where government involvement in markets is under severe attack, political expediency and prudent economics coalesce to fund the incubation of SMEs. Even if greater government intervention is counterintuitive to laissez faire proclivities of the politically engaged, higher taxes would be required to fund the risk of capital formation initiatives. The securitization of SME loans is also a consideration; but aversion to leverage and the risk to encourage poor lending practices raise fears of creating yet another credit bubble.

The Government of Singapore recently rose its guarantee on SME loans to cover 70% of principal in response to the increase in cost of capital banks will charge as a result of Basel III. Spreads on SME loans are estimated to increase between 50 to 80 basis points. This rise in the cost of capital will allow banks to recoup Basel III compliance expenses associated with the segregation of regulatory capital requirements to service SME loan portfolios.

The risk premia on SME loans is justified by regulators because it guarantees the availability of credit through the business cycle. The financial health of SME’s are highly correlated to the vicissitudes of the business cycle. During times of cyclical downturns risk factors for SMEs are magnified due to the prevalence of concentration risk in products, regions, markets, client and critical macroeconomic factors germane to the SME’s business. Mitigation initiatives are inhibited due to liquidity constraints, resource depletion and balance sheet limitations. The closure of credit channels exacerbates this problem and Basel III risk premia pledges to fund SMEs through a trying business cycle.

To maintain profitability of SME lending, banks will enhance quality standards and haircut collateral margins; a potentially onerous demand since asset valuations remain severely distressed from the effects of the Great Recession. Banks will avoid SMEs with enhanced risk profiles, make greater use of loan covenants, expand fee based services and hike origination fees to protect margins and instill enhanced credit risk controls to minimize default risk.

As the strictures of Basel III take root within commercial banks alternative credit channels are opening to better match an SME’s credit requirements and market situation with a financial product that best addresses their business condition. D&B has initiated a timely capital formation initiative for SMEs. Access to Capital - Money to Main Street is an event tour that is bringing together regional providers of funding for SMEs and startups. 

The economic recovery is combining with technology to energize innovations in SME funding options. Crowd-funding, micro-lending, asset financing, leasing, community bank loans, credit unions and venture capital channels are a few of the many options available for small business funding. Each channel offers distinct terms and advantages that match a funding option to the specific situation of an SME. 

SME associations and advocacy groups are surfacing in the EU that seek to harness the residual capital created by SME failures. Second Chance and Fail2Suceed are initiatives that seek to harness the intellectual capital garnered by entrepreneurs in unsuccessful enterprises. It is a clear recognition that a great failure can be the mother of greater wisdom. This may augur well for the success of Basel III as it seeks to build on the shortfalls of its forebears to better protect the global banking system as it promotes the wealth of nations by equitably funding the growth of the global SME segment.

Sum2 offers a portfolio of risk assessment applications and consultative services to businesses, governments and non-profit organizations. Our leading product Credit Redi offers SMEs tools to manage financial health and improve corporate credit rating to manage enterprise risk and attract capital to fund initiatives to achieve business goals. Credit Redi helps SMEs improve credit standing to demonstrate creditworthiness to bankers and investors. On Google Play: Get Credit|Redi


Risk: SME, Basel III, commercial lending, political stability, economic growth, USA, EU, alternative credit channels, credit risk, global banking, business failure, OECD, SIFI

This article was originally released on DaftBlogger.