Showing posts with label political. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Sustainable Economics

We have put our good mother through a lot over the past few million years. Ever since we walked out of the great rift the biospheres dominant species has really left a mark. I know that mark is but a tiny spec on the archaeological record of the earth which spans a few billion years but our impact is unmistakable.

I guess it started with the invention of hand tools, fire, wheels, shelter construction, water cultivation and agriculture. You can’t forget hunting in packs, weaponry, domestication of animals, speech, art and writing. A consciousness of a portfolio of skills, specialization, division of labor and the ability to discern exchange value within the community birthed a notion of governance. Our social nature was crowned with our ability to transmit craft and knowledge to successive generations, assuring continuity and cohesion with a common history and a well articulated cosmology. Put it all together and I think you got your basic modern Homo sapien.

Oh yeah, we also developed a psychology, an ego, that incorporates the primacy of ourselves and our selfish needs. It rationalizes and guides our interactions with nature, transforming the intention of our labor into a transaction that alters the conditions of the environment. It also serves as indisputable empirical evidence of the master species, elevated above all others as time marks the progress and dominion of the human race.

Our dominion has been codified into our sacred literature. Our creation stories and cosmic mission statements expressly state to exercise our dominion over nature, to propagate the species and to be fruitful and multiply. The screaming unencumbered id, left to its own devises, unchecked in the grand supermarket. We human’s have succeeded beyond our wildest expectations and the species continues to be fruitful and multiplying. 

We sojourn on, notching the ladder of history with marks of our progression through the ages. Along the way we Cro-Magnons expropriated the Neanderthals and moved into their Mediterranean digs complete with fire pits, burial chambers and the best take on modern art until Picasso came along.

I guess that's the point. Our survival comes at the expense of other creatures and things. I’m no Malthusian, but Tom Friedman’s flat world is getting crowded.    And as we celebrate the 44th Earth Day a midst the greatest die off of species since mankind coronated himself as master and commander of all things earth; it may be time to consider how our dominion is hampering the well being of the lesser flora and fauna kingdoms and what we can do to begin the practice of a more sustainable economics.

When I look at Las Vegas, I behold a garish mecca of capitalism on steroids.  I’m overwhelmed by the banality of the the things we so highly esteem. A community venerated and propped up on the foundation of vice, hedonism and the radical pursuit of money. Unbridled development of a crystal neon city constructed in the middle of a desert, recklessly consumes water and energy resources and misdirects human capital to maintain the facade of an unsustainable economy. 

Phoenix poses the same paradox. Darling child of the credit boom, Phoenix is a city consuming itself. The rising threat of climate change, blistering heat, dwindling water supplies and raging haboobs would give any urban planner reason to pause. A bustling city of many millions of striving citizens consuming energy, water and human capital built on the unsustainable foundation of excessive consumption and an unrealistic valuation of the capital required to maintain it. 

The explosion of fracking natural gas deposits in the Marcellus Shale formation is another example of sacrificing long term sustainability for the immediacy of shareholder returns. The Marcellus Deposit has proven reserves that only last a decade. As evidenced by the hyper development occurring in North Dakota,  economies tied to resource extraction are prone to experience classic boom bust cycles. During boom times all is well. But the good times don’t last all that long and communities are left in the wake of the bust cycle to deal with the aftermath. 

The Keystone XL Pipeline and the rapid expansion of the LNG extraction industries are being touted as the foundation of American energy independence. But this energy resource extracts a high cost on the land and its natural bounty. It poses significant risk to water aquifers, air quality, wildlife and the storage of waste-water byproducts will present long term remediation challenges to communities for many decades after the last well is capped.

Our new found fortune of LNG comes with a significant opportunity cost to develop alternative energy sources as it continues to tether our economic dependence on a dwindling supply of fossil fuels. Perpetuating this dependence also requires us to expend huge sums of money on the military. The political arrhythmia in the Ukraine and the keen interest of the United States has much to do with the changing political economy of fossil fuels and the protection and accession of markets.

Sustainability requires a new approach to the emerging realities of the global political economy. Recognition that competing interests bring important capital to the table, and that all must be recognized and fully valued in the new algorithms of sustainability is the keystone and pipeline of sustainability. The practice of unfettered development is unsustainable. Regulation, arbitration and revitalization cannot be sacrificed at the altar of laissez-faire politics that only serves to widen the wealth gap at tremendous social cost. The politicization of economic policy cannot continue to be beholden to rampant monetization. Sustainability is the creation of long term value for a diverse community of stakeholders. It needs to become our guiding mantra as the global population approaches 8 billion souls. 

Happy Earth Day.



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Risk: fracking, political, water, air, war, opportunity cost, renewal clean energy, climate change

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Half a League, Half a League, Rode the 600

So begins Alfred Lord Tennyson's famous poem, The Charge of the Light Brigade.  The poem bespeaks the glory and folly of Pax Britannica's imperial apex; yet still offers dear lessons for those dispassionate enough to listen.

Tennyson recounts the doomed charge of a British cavalry unit at the Battle of Balaclava during the Crimean War.  British Intelligence provided the Light Brigade Command incorrect information, under estimating the strength of the defending Cossacks.  As the assault commenced the Light Brigade soldiers realized they had been misled. The probability of defeating the entrenched Cossacks was an impossibility; but the Light Brigade rode on....

Half a league, half a league,
  Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death,
  Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.

The Crimean War was one of the great mistakes in modern history. The costly war, an accident driven by the over-sized national hubris of fledgling nation states - Britain, France, Austria- Hungary and Czarist Russia- urgently arriving on the global stage, eager to exert a national will to carve a slice from a dwindling colonial pie. 

The Crimean War provides a few lessons for today's historical actors keen to relive the historical farce once again. The United States, Russia and the EU, all seemingly intent on escalating conflict across a volatile Eurasian region surrounded by Middle and Near Eastern instability. Surely a tinderbox, a conflagration awaiting; primed to spark from the flash point of resurrected Cold War animosities.  

I cite Tennyson's poem not as an allegorical reference to the deadly game unfolding in the Ukraine but as an example of the consequences of acting on bad information.  Business intelligence is an absolute critical component of an effective risk management program.  

The stakes in the evolving Crimean crisis are huge and the consequences of the conflict will loom large over world markets for an extended period of time.  SME's in the region will bear the brunt of the economic effects of the crisis.  Political instability has placed the regional economy into a tailspin.  Clashing armies are never good for business.

European SME's need to consider the impact of a disruption of Russian oil and natural gas delivered by Ukrainian pipelines.  How would such a disruption impact the price of energy commodities and industries that are sensitive to it?

What would be the contagion effects of a broader conflict?  What would be its impact in the Greater Caucasus, Syria and Iran?   Would a conflict in the Ukraine close access to the Black Sea and how would that affect exports and the economic stability of Turkey?

How would the Russian oligarchs react to sanctions and asset seizures imposed by the west? News services are reporting significant capital flight from Russia, a plunging bourse and a ruble at historic lows.  

These are but a few questions effective risk managers need to consider.  Seeking out and assessing information and how it will impact your business model is absolutely critical during times of acute macro risk.

Don't fall victim to the blind hubris of the Light Brigade....

Forward, the Light Brigade!'
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldiers knew
  Some one had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.

Regional enterprises directly affected by the conflict and the international community of SME's with supply chain, export market or contagion risk exposures linked to the growing instability in the Ukraine need to assess these emerging event and  macroeconomic risk factors.  

Get risk aware with Macroeconomic Risk and Event App (MERA) on Google Play.  Its an Mobile Office app that runs on MS Office and Android.  MERA will help you assess heightening risk factors to profit from the opportunities shifting markets present.


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Risk: economic, political, market, supply chain , capital flight, commodities, contagion risk, Ukraine, Black Sea, Eurasia, Iran